Remote sensing observations from satellites and global biogeochemical models have combined to revolutionize the study of ocean biogeochemical cycling, but comparing the two data streams to each other and across time remains challenging due to the strong spatial-temporal structuring of the ocean. Here, we show that the Wasserstein distance provides a powerful metric for harnessing these structured datasets for better marine ecosystem and climate predictions. The Wasserstein distance complements commonly used point-wise difference methods such as the root-mean-squared error, by quantifying differences in terms of spatial displacement in addition to magnitude. As a test case, we consider chlorophyll (a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass) in the northeast Pacific Ocean, obtained from model simulations, in situ measurements, and satellite observations. We focus on two main applications: (i) comparing model predictions with satellite observations, and (ii) temporal evolution of chlorophyll both seasonally and over longer time frames. The Wasserstein distance successfully isolates temporal and depth variability and quantifies shifts in biogeochemical province boundaries. It also exposes relevant temporal trends in satellite chlorophyll consistent with climate change predictions. Our study shows that optimal transport vectors underlying the Wasserstein distance provide a novel visualization tool for testing models and better understanding temporal dynamics in the ocean.
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Abstract Aim Light, essential for photosynthesis, is present in two periodic cycles in nature: seasonal and diel. Although seasonality of light is typically resolved in ocean biogeochemical–ecosystem models because of its significance for seasonal succession and biogeography of phytoplankton, the diel light cycle is generally not resolved. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the impact of diel light cycles on phytoplankton competition and biogeography in the global ocean.
Location Global ocean.
Major taxa studied Phytoplankton.
Methods We use a three‐dimensional global ocean model and compare simulations of high temporal resolution with and without diel light cycles. The model simulates 15 phytoplankton types with different cell sizes, encompassing two broad ecological strategies: small cells with high nutrient affinity (gleaners) and larger cells with high maximal growth rate (opportunists). Both are grazed by zooplankton and limited by nitrogen, phosphorus and iron.
Results Simulations show that diel cycles of light induce diel cycles in limiting nutrients in the global ocean. Diel nutrient cycles are associated with higher concentrations of limiting nutrients, by 100% at low latitudes (−40° to 40°), a process that increases the relative abundance of opportunists over gleaners. Size classes with the highest maximal growth rates from both gleaner and opportunist groups are favoured by diel light cycles. This mechanism weakens as latitude increases, because the effects of the seasonal cycle dominate over those of the diel cycle.
Main conclusions Understanding the mechanisms that govern phytoplankton biogeography is crucial for predicting ocean ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycles. We show that the diel light cycle has a significant impact on phytoplankton competition and biogeography, indicating the need for understanding the role of diel processes in shaping macroecological patterns in the global ocean.
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Abstract The sinking of carbon fixed via net primary production (NPP) into the ocean interior is an important part of marine biogeochemical cycles. NPP measurements follow a log‐normal probability distribution, meaning NPP variations can be simply described by two parameters despite NPP's complexity. By analyzing a global database of open ocean particle fluxes, we show that this log‐normal probability distribution propagates into the variations of near‐seafloor fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate, and opal. Deep‐sea particle fluxes at subtropical and temperate time‐series sites follow the same log‐normal probability distribution, strongly suggesting the log‐normal description is robust and applies on multiple scales. This log‐normality implies that 29% of the highest measurements are responsible for 71% of the total near‐seafloor POC flux. We discuss possible causes for the dampening of variability from NPP to deep‐sea POC flux, and present an updated relationship predicting POC flux from mineral flux and depth.
